Monday, December 03, 2012
Scotland Not Sinking into Recession But Being Pushed Down By the SNP
A couple of points about the economy & hiow to fix it
Firstly the Scottish economy is considerably underperforming the UK one. Although our political class, all traditional parties, is ignoring this for the navel gazing of the "independence" referendum (which isn't about independence from the Brussels Parliament that makes 75% of our laws) it is bound to be the determining factor in that debate. The Greens alone have said that we should vote for separation in the expectation that we will then spend the next 10 years in recession. The SNP are more sensibly reticent about admiting it but that is obviously also their intention.
The decline in Scotland's economy is similar to that of Spain, according to a global accountancy firm.
A report by Ernst & Young said Scotland's overall output decline of 4% over the past four years put it on par with the troubled Spanish economy.
This will be the third year in five in which the economy shrank.
The report predicted growth of just 0.7% next year - which it said was "well below normal" and lower than the expected UK figure of 1.2%.
Ernst & Young also found that Scotland's economy remained in an "unenviable" position, with exports "uncomfortably" low in the world rankings.
And the country faces "an extended period of convalescence" ahead, it stated.
The firm estimated that 60,000 jobs will have been shed in the Scottish public sector between the start of the 2008 financial crisis and the end of its forecast in 2015.
While the growth rate in the rest of the world excluding the EU remains at a very creditable 6%. Nobody has ever attempted to seriously argue that Scotland or Britain could not manage to be at least average were it not that our political class is actively preventing growth.
The reason for this is because of the deliberate policy of the SNP - to destroy our energy and thus industrial capacity (& the capacity of hundreds of thousands of pensioners for survival.)
Which brings us to the 2nd point. That ECONOMIC FREEDOM + CHEAP ENERGY = FAST GROWTH
I have tried to get some politician to say why, since they oppose the 2nd and usually the first of these policies. The fact that none of them will strongly suggests they know the answer and it is discreditable.
The nearest I have got is this, underlined, from John Redwood. John had done a lecture on what we need to get out of recession. 6 good points on economic freedom, but nothing on energy. I commented and he replied:
Neil Craig
Posted November 25, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Obviously I regret that you did not mention energy prices and availability as something consistently showin a 1:1 correlation with growth in economically free economies and a still very close relation in those where government artificially restricts supply and increases prices, such as ours.
John even if you don’t believe this correlation to be important I think you should at least have explained why not.Firstly the Scottish economy is considerably underperforming the UK one. Although our political class, all traditional parties, is ignoring this for the navel gazing of the "independence" referendum (which isn't about independence from the Brussels Parliament that makes 75% of our laws) it is bound to be the determining factor in that debate. The Greens alone have said that we should vote for separation in the expectation that we will then spend the next 10 years in recession. The SNP are more sensibly reticent about admiting it but that is obviously also their intention.
The decline in Scotland's economy is similar to that of Spain, according to a global accountancy firm.
A report by Ernst & Young said Scotland's overall output decline of 4% over the past four years put it on par with the troubled Spanish economy.
This will be the third year in five in which the economy shrank.
The report predicted growth of just 0.7% next year - which it said was "well below normal" and lower than the expected UK figure of 1.2%.
Ernst & Young also found that Scotland's economy remained in an "unenviable" position, with exports "uncomfortably" low in the world rankings.
And the country faces "an extended period of convalescence" ahead, it stated.
The firm estimated that 60,000 jobs will have been shed in the Scottish public sector between the start of the 2008 financial crisis and the end of its forecast in 2015.
While the growth rate in the rest of the world excluding the EU remains at a very creditable 6%. Nobody has ever attempted to seriously argue that Scotland or Britain could not manage to be at least average were it not that our political class is actively preventing growth.
The reason for this is because of the deliberate policy of the SNP - to destroy our energy and thus industrial capacity (& the capacity of hundreds of thousands of pensioners for survival.)
Which brings us to the 2nd point. That ECONOMIC FREEDOM + CHEAP ENERGY = FAST GROWTH
I have tried to get some politician to say why, since they oppose the 2nd and usually the first of these policies. The fact that none of them will strongly suggests they know the answer and it is discreditable.
The nearest I have got is this, underlined, from John Redwood. John had done a lecture on what we need to get out of recession. 6 good points on economic freedom, but nothing on energy. I commented and he replied:
Neil Craig
Posted November 25, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Obviously I regret that you did not mention energy prices and availability as something consistently showin a 1:1 correlation with growth in economically free economies and a still very close relation in those where government artificially restricts supply and increases prices, such as ours.
Reply: Yes, I regularly explain why more cheaper energy would help.
Neil Craig
John I happily acknowledge you have done so. Nonetheless if the correlation is as close as I suggest (or even if it were quite a bit less) it must be the single most important factor in getting out of, or falling deeper into, recession. It should thus always be listed among the 6 main ways of achieving growth. I would argue, at #1.
This is a matter that is going to be increasingly raised because, although the leaders of the LabConDems remain committed to reducing power and making it more expensive UKIP’ (energy spokesman Roger Helmer former Tory MEP) is fully committed to allowing the free market to produce the power that will get us out of recession.
John, who is certainly among the most intelligent and competent of our MPs clearly knows I am correct though he cannot, for party reasons, completely admit his party are, along with the LabDemGreens, the problem not the solution.
Only UKIP, whose Roger Helmer put UKIP on an unequivocal route to a free enterprise driven energy policy can be the solution.
Labels: British politics, economic growth, Scottish politics
