Sunday, February 20, 2011
Number of the Week: 682%. From 1960 to 2010 wheat production in India went from 10,320 (1000 Metric Tons) to 80,710 (1000 MT) - an increase of 682 percent. According to the measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in 1960 was below 320 ppm and in 2010 it is about 390 ppm - an increase of 22%. No doubt the "green revolution" of better seeds, farming practices and fertilizer plus removal of government price controls greatly contributed to increased wheat production in India, but so did CO2
. I have previously discussed this this graph in connection with the agreed fact that human CO2 production amounts to only 3% of total CO2 production. This means that CO2 simply cannot rise, from purely human causes beyond the stage at which it causes plant and ocean absorption to rise 3%. This in turn suggests that the present CO2 rise simply isn't caused by human beings & is thus very probably a n example of CO2 levels historically lagging solar caused warm periods by about 800 years (in our case lagging the Medieval warm Period)
We would expect, from the graph, that a 22% from 320 parts per million, the solid line point, to 390 that we should see about a 5% increase in crops. That means that of India's 80.7 million tons of grain only 76.9 would be from agricultural causes.
That, while it means 4 million extra tons of food for the people doesn't greatly affect the impressive increase achieved by human progress in the field. Nor indeed the impressive effects of any compound growth formula. 80.7 million tons, a 682% increase, is an average increase of 4.2% each year. An increase to 76.9 million. an increase of 645% amounts to 4.1%.
The increase in food supply is not large compared to Moore's Law where we see computer capacity increasing from 41% annually yo over 100%. Not is it large compared to the 2 orders of magnitude increase in materials strength (steel to buckeytubes) over under 50 years ie over 10% annually.
However all 3 are enormously greater annual rates than humanity has ever achieved before. The 3 taken together establish overwhelming evidence that the era of human progress has barely opened. And that all the Luddite politicians and government funded propagandists saying we should expect/look forward to an end to the economic expansion the Greens say we must abandon.
That is why, despite all the lunacies of those in charge & their hobgoblin lies I am confident in the future.
On the other hand I may be wrong. Paul Ehrlich who, from the grants and awards he gets, must still be considered as representing the very best accuracy to which the eco-Nazi movement aspire:
"This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century." and advocated cutting off all attempts to aid India because "In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." Ehrlich also stated, "India couldn't possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980,"
The boss of the IPCC says "Climate change is bringing down wheat production in India... Agriculture productivity, particularly of wheat, has shown signs of going down as a result of the climate change,...”
Anybody suggesting that the eco-fascists, including Cameron, Miliband and Clegg, the BBC etc etc who, through our taxes, deliberately fund such liars should ever, under any circumstances be treated as more trustworthy than we Cornucopians must explain why, or prove themselves to be wholly corrupt too.